I’ve been thinking a lot about generations recently.
It’s quite interesting how we’re all part of these huge social groups, based on the time in which we were born, that have untold influence on who we are, how we behave and the things that we experience.
Now a lot of people, much smarter than me, have spent much more time thinking about these things and I wanted to share one of the most interesting ideas I’ve read on this here and how it informs one of my big views on the future. I’ll follow up with some other things that I think reinforce this at some point.
So, before we get into Generations, it’s worth establishing a few basic principles that I don’t think you need an academic paper to tell you.
Firstly, I’m a firm believer that the things you’re exposed to and that happen to you as a child have a huge impact on the person you become.
I’d be tempted to argue that there’s a general inverse relationship between the age at which you experience something and the impact that has on you as a person.
To take a couple of extreme examples, if your childhood memories are filled with experiences of the devastation of war, you’re probably going to be a proponent of peace. Likewise, if you grow up in a deep economic recession and have childhood experiences of your family struggling to afford food, you’re probably not going to waste food.
Secondly, stability breeds instability. If you get comfortable, over a long enough time period, you’ll get complacent, others will become better than you and then destabilise you.
Thirdly, history doesn’t repeat, but it bloody well does rhyme.
With that in mind, let’s jump in.
The idea is that life generally follows cycles made up of four phases, which each correspond to a generation.
The authors made the theory with US history in mind, but it seems to broadly apply to most Western countries. Naturally, I’ll focus on Britain here.
The Awakening > The Unravelling > The Crisis > The High etc etc, defined as follows:
The High (e.g., c.1946 - 1964; Post-War, Welfare State, Decolonisation) - This generally starts straight after a crisis. Society remembers what just happened and works well together to do great things and avoid it happening again.
The Awakening (e.g., c.1964 - 1980; Cultural Revolution, The Beatles, Women’s Liberation Movement) - People develop a health disregard for established institutions and stand up for things they think are important, generally though a cultural or spiritual revolution.
The Unravelling (e.g., c.1980 - 2008; Thatcherism, Social Fragmentation, Deindustrialisation) - The healthy disregard becomes unhealthy and institutions suffer as a consequence. There’s a lot of individualisation.
The Crisis (e.g., c.2008 - ?; Great Financial Crisis, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine) - There’s increased instability and a perceived threat to the very survival of the nature, often culminating in war or revolution to resolve it.
I know this can seem dramatic on first reading, and there’s definitely a bit of fitting the backtest to fit the theory, but remembering that history rhymes, there’s a compelling argument that this actually holds for a good stretch of British history:
Crisis - c.1455 - 1487; War of the Roses
High - c.1487 - 1547; Tudors, The Renaissance
Awakening - c.1547 - 1603; The Reformation
Unravelling - c.1603 - 1642; Stuart Absolutism
Crisis - c.1642 - 1670; English Civil War
High - c.1685 - 1738; The Enlightenment
Awakening - c.1738 - 1775; Methodist Revival
Unravelling - c.1775 - 1793; American Revolution
Crisis - c.1793 - 1815; Napoleonic Wars
High - c.1815 - 1844; Pax Britannica, Industrial Revolution, Height of the Empire
Awakening - c.1844 - 1870; Chartism, Evangelical Reforms
Unravelling - c.1870 - 1924; Fin de Siecle, Edwardian Imperial Overreach, WW1
Crisis - c.1925 - 1945; Great Depression, WW2
The idea follows that whichever of these phases you grow up in has a formative impact on who you are, such that each generation can be characterised as follows:
The Prophets (e.g., Baby Boomers born 1943 - 1960) - Grow up during The High, a time of community spirit and life. Young adults during The Awakening.
The Nomads (e.g., Gen X born 1961 - 1981) - Grow up during The Awakening, a time of cultural and spiritual ideas. Young adults during The Unravelling
The Heroes (e.g., Millenials born 1982 - c.2005) - Grow up during The Unravelling, a time of individualism and self-reliance. Young adults during The Crisis.
The Artists (e.g., Gen Z born c.2005 - ?). - Grow up during The Crisis, a time of increased instability. Young Adults during The High.
I think it’s without question that we’re living in “unprecedented times”. Between Covid, Russia/Ukraine and Trump, I think it’s fair to say we’re firmly in The Crisis phase.
These typically end with war or revolution, and I don’t think it’s unforeseeable that this country is involved in a fairly serious war/existential challenge around the end of the decade, if not before, and that our generation will be defined by how we respond to it. You might have heard this called the Fourth Turning.
I know that sounds absolutely barking mad, but five years is a long time - imagine telling people about ChatGPT in 2018, a war on the European continent in 2017, Covid in 2015, Brexit in 2011, the collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns in 2003 and 9/11 in 1996.
Of course, I hope it doesn’t happen, and that we can claim Covid as the peak of our crisis, but I’m not so optimistic. I have some other ideas that back this view, some more historical, some economic and some just plain mad, which I’ll try to share in due course.
Let me know what you think about this one, I know it’s a bit different. I’m sure we will agree that, as the apocryphal Chinese curse goes, we certainly live in interesting times.